Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 11.144744 13.050462 15.131553 17.566053 20.328679 23.358930 26.926692
2025-01-05 8.138200 10.718856 13.819348 17.786352 22.691436 28.519590 35.926577
2025-01-12 6.164122 8.997308 12.692159 17.787177 24.542455 33.094507 44.626868
2025-01-19 4.850588 7.757593 11.831110 17.819869 26.237521 37.462606 53.339091
2025-01-26 4.272521 7.378699 11.998495 19.153402 29.689770 44.325153 65.803299
2025-02-02 3.711308 6.889430 11.885074 19.998687 32.457598 50.400423 77.597401
2025-02-09 3.252528 6.460132 11.766985 20.767471 35.117734 56.457878 89.735513
2025-02-16 2.739617 5.829515 11.212205 20.742163 36.506381 60.688307 99.437602
2025-02-23 2.242308 5.121219 10.405912 20.173172 36.927622 63.418937 107.000502
2025-03-02 1.810058 4.443260 9.538553 19.365827 36.833523 65.274759 113.260863
2025-03-09 1.543259 4.044350 9.117998 19.278888 37.908748 69.020630 122.660822
2025-03-16 1.296570 3.633602 8.606917 18.949124 38.502481 71.977704 130.920430
2025-03-23 1.191052 3.533874 8.724402 19.861498 41.456103 79.182549 146.753780
2025-03-30 1.048552 3.313718 8.558299 20.198863 43.388483 84.783403 160.273682
2025-04-06 0.904072 3.053057 8.261750 20.231432 44.741103 89.452500 172.476430
2025-04-13 0.782160 2.821332 7.991143 20.278747 46.112323 94.223764 185.101860
2025-04-20 0.758114 2.864029 8.372373 21.771510 50.453496 104.623432 208.131551
2025-04-27 0.705191 2.807347 8.501951 22.715928 53.753074 113.280475 228.469012
2025-05-04 0.652719 2.738898 8.590815 23.573610 56.932534 121.879113 249.099523
2025-05-11 0.568087 2.541264 8.313253 23.545565 58.248662 127.011417 263.644523
2025-05-18 0.472938 2.276542 7.808822 22.911215 58.206107 129.508869 273.421646
2025-05-25 0.384429 2.003589 7.228464 22.010592 57.489380 130.618380 280.617805
2025-06-01 0.332731 1.854998 6.979893 21.913578 58.546106 135.296892 294.793223